MOORE’S LAW
Закон Мура — эмпирическое наблюдение, изначально сделанное Гордоном Муром, согласно которому (в современной формулировке) количество транзисторов, размещаемых на кристалле интегральной схемы, удваивается каждые 24 месяца. Часто цитируемый интервал в 18 месяцев связан с прогнозом Давида Хауса из Intel, по мнению которого, производительность процессоров должна удваиваться каждые 18 месяцев из-за сочетания роста количества транзисторов и увеличения тактовых частот процессоров.
Moore’s law is the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles about every two years. The observation is named after Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and CEO of Intel, whose 1965 paper described a doubling every year in the number of components per integrated circuit, and projected this rate of growth would continue for at least another decade. In 1975, looking forward to the next decade, he revised the forecast to doubling every two years, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.4%.
Moore’s law is the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles about every two years. The observation is named after Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and CEO of Intel, whose 1965 paper described a doubling every year in the number of components per integrated circuit, and projected this rate of growth would continue for at least another decade. In 1975, looking forward to the next decade, he revised the forecast to doubling every two years, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.4%.
Stanford University finds that AI is outpacing Moore’s Law: AI performance is doubling nearly every 3 months.
By simply extrapolating Moore’s Law into the future, Kurzweil predicts that by 2023, a $1,000 computer will have the power of the human brain and by 2037 a $0.01 computer will too.
Moore’s Law is one of economics – not physics. It tells us that each new chip will have twice the transistors and therefore compute capability of the previous generation for the same cost of production.
By simply extrapolating Moore’s Law into the future, Kurzweil predicts that by 2023, a $1,000 computer will have the power of the human brain and by 2037 a $0.01 computer will too.
Moore’s Law is one of economics – not physics. It tells us that each new chip will have twice the transistors and therefore compute capability of the previous generation for the same cost of production.